Blog
Notes on health systems, AI, measurement, and building things.
2026
- Intelligence Was Rarely the Bottleneck OpenAI resolved ten open problems in mathematics for roughly $2,000 in tokens, then proposed a resolution of Navier-Stokes. Cheap reasoning relaxes one constraint. The question is which one was binding. 13 min
- Fear Is Not a Probability Researchers inside frontier AI labs are frightened, and they may be right to be. But sincerity is not calibration. What I learned modeling epidemics from sparse data is that the number matters far less than the mechanism that generates it. 32 min
New posts by email
An email when there is a new post, and nothing else. One click to leave.
Prefer a reader? RSS.